Atlantic hurricane season 2018: Watch and listen to NOAA’s annual forecast

(NOAA) Although the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season ended with only two hurricanes, (Nicole and Cindy), Atlantic Hurricane Season 2019 was among the second busiest on record, with 17 named storms, including 10 hurricanes. Normal…

Atlantic hurricane season 2018: Watch and listen to NOAA's annual forecast

(NOAA)

Although the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season ended with only two hurricanes, (Nicole and Cindy), Atlantic Hurricane Season 2019 was among the second busiest on record, with 17 named storms, including 10 hurricanes.

Normal Atlantic hurricane season:

14 named storms, six hurricanes

4 hurricanes: 1 major

3 major: 4 major hurricanes (major hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher)

Periodicity (1980-2016):

Hurricanes (5)

Hurricanes and tropical storms (8)

Hurricanes and tropical storms (1)

Hurricanes, tropical storms, and storms (4)

Dry season:

None

Hurricane researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their latest Atlantic hurricane season forecast on August 14, 2019.

Expected intensity and event frequency from the NOAA forecast for the season starting on June 1, 2019 to Nov. 30, 2020, are below:

Accuracy:

Average for previous 10-year period is 74 percent;

Accuracy for forecast is 67 percent;

Estimated range for occurrence of major hurricane is between 50 percent and 74 percent;

“therefore, a broad-scale baseline exists in forecasts to accurately predict the probability of a hurricane occurring in the Atlantic basin during the storm season that begins June 1, 2019 to Nov. 30, 2020,” NOAA stated.

Seasonal Outlook

After averaging a near-average season in 2018, the Atlantic basin is forecast to have a relatively normal start to the year, then a slightly above-normal season with near- or above-normal activity, potentially becoming an above-normal season if sustained activity persists.

Predictions for the storm season in 2019 include:

Occurrence of at least seven named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Average for previous 10-year period is 3.5 named storms, 2.8 hurricanes and 1.9 major hurricanes.

Accuracy for predicted path is 80 percent;

Accuracy for forecast is 67 percent;

Record-breaking season or below-average season.

Additional Resources

Special Report: “The Atlantic Hurricane Season, Through the Eyes of New York City.”

Orleans Chronicle.

Illinois Weather Network.

West Point Weather.

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